77th Academy Predictions

門外漢。

グラミーとは違ってアカデミーは、僕にとってはまったくわからない世界。とはいうものの、今回は映画『RAY』が個人的に一押しですが、いろいろな情報を読んでみて、それなりに予想をしてみました。まあ、お遊びと思ってみてください。10部門予想しますが、2つ本命で当たれば、御の字です。(笑) (グラミーと比べて、かなり地味にひっそりと)

今回大いに参考にしたのは、前回グラミーでも参考にしたゴールドダービーのサイト。グラミーの時は、ここの予想者よりも多くを当てましたが、アカデミーはすっかりここに頼りました。特に、トム・オニールさんはグラミー主要部門を僕と同じく3部門当てたので、彼の予想を軸にたててみました。今年は、クリント・イーストウッドの『ミリオンダラー・ベイビー』がかなり話題の中心になるような気がしました。ただ主演男優はジェイミー・フォックスです! (笑) 

アカデミー賞は約5800人のアカデミー会員が投票。すでに投票は終わり、後は集計を待つのみ。

アカデミー賞は2005年2月27日(日曜・アメリカ時間東部時間夜8時から=日本時間28日月曜午前10時から)、ロスアンジェルスのコダック・シアター(キャパシティー約3300)で行われる。生中継は、今回はアメリカABCが担当。

オスカーのオフィシャルサイト
http://www.oscar.com

トム・オニールの予想と解説
http://www.goldderby.com/pundents/Oscars2005/TomOneil.asp

01.BEST PICTURE
“The Aviator”
“Finding Neverland”
本命- “Million Dollar Baby”
対抗”Ray”
“Sideways”

02. BEST DIRECTOR
本命 – Clint Eastwood, “Million Dollar Baby”
Taylor Hackford, “Ray”
Mike Leigh, “Vera Drake”
Alexander Payne, “Sideways”
対抗Martin Scorsese, “The Aviator”

03. BEST ACTOR
Don Cheadle, “Hotel Rwanda”
Johnny Depp, “Finding Neverland”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Aviator”
対抗Clint Eastwood, “Million Dollar Baby”
本命 – Jamie Foxx, “Ray”

04. BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, “Being Julia”
Catalina Sandino Moreno, “Maria Full of Grace”
Imelda Staunton, “Vera Drake”
本命 – Hilary Swank, “Million Dollar Baby”
対抗Kate Winslet, “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”

05. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Alda, “The Aviator”
Thomas Haden Church, “Sideways”
対抗 Jamie Foxx, “Collateral”
本命 – Morgan Freeman, “Million Dollar Baby”
Clive Owen, “Closer”

06. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
本命 – Cate Blanchett, “The Aviator”
Laura Linney, “Kinsey”
Virginia Madsen, “Sideways”
対抗 Sophie Okonedo, “Hotel Rwanda”
Natalie Portman, “Closer”

07. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Before Sunset,” screenplay by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy Ethan Hawke;
story by Richard Linklater and Kim Krizan
“Finding Neverland,” David Magee
本命 – “Million Dollar Baby,” Paul Haggis
“The Motorcycle Diaries,” Jose Rivera
対抗 ”Sideways,” Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor

08. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

“The Aviator,” John Logan
本命 ”Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind,” screenplay by Charlie Kaufman; story by Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry and Pierre Bismuth
対抗 ”Hotel Rwanda,” Keir Pearson and Terry George
“The Incredibles,” Brad Bird
“Vera Drake,” Mike Leigh

09. FILM EDITING

対抗 THE AVIATOR
COLLATERAL
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
本命 RAY

10. COSTUME DESIGN

対抗 THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET’S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
本命 RAY
TROY

その他の部門。

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

THE INCREDIBLES
SHARK TALE
SHREK 2

ART DIRECTION

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET’S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

CINEMATOGRAPHY

THE AVIATOR
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

DIRECTING

THE AVIATOR
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
VERA DRAKE

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

BORN INTO BROTHELS
THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL
SUPER SIZE ME
TUPAC: RESURRECTION
TWIST OF FAITH

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

AUTISM IS A WORLD
THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY
HARDWOOD
MIGHTY TIMES: THE CHILDREN’S MARCH
SISTER ROSE’S PASSION

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

AS IT IS IN HEAVEN
THE CHORUS
DOWNFALL
THE SEA INSIDE
YESTERDAY

MAKEUP

LEMONY SNICKET’S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE SEA INSIDE

MUSIC (SCORE)

FINDING NEVERLAND
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
LEMONY SNICKET’S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE VILLAGE

MUSIC (SONG)

“Accidentally In Love” – SHREK 2
“Al Otro Lado Del Rio” – THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
“Believe” – THE POLAR EXPRESS
“Learn To Be Lonely” – THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
“Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)” – THE CHORUS

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

BIRTHDAY BOY
GOPHER BROKE
GUARD DOG
LORENZO
RYAN

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST
LITTLE TERRORIST
7:35 IN THE MORNING
TWO CARS, ONE NIGHT
WASP

SOUND EDITING

THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
SPIDER-MAN 2

SOUND MIXING

THE AVIATOR
THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
RAY
SPIDER-MAN 2

VISUAL EFFECTS

HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
I, ROBOT
SPIDER-MAN 2

+++++

また、同じくゴールドダービーのオッズは次の通り。上から当選確率が高いとオッズメイカーが考えたもの。

GOLDDERBY ODDS ON TOP 8 RACES

BEST PICTURE
“Million Dollar Baby” – 4/5
“The Aviator” – Even
“Sideways” – 12/1
“Ray” – 15/1
“Finding Neverland” – 50/1

BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Eastwood, “Million Dollar Baby” – 4/5
Martin Scorsese, “The Aviator” – Even
Alexander Payne, “Sideways” – 15/1
Taylor Hackford, “Ray” – 30/1
Mike Leigh, “Vera Drake” – 40/1

BEST ACTOR
Jamie Foxx, “Ray” – Even
Clint Eastwood, “Million Dollar Baby” – 7/5
Don Cheadle, “Hotel Rwanda” – 6/1
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Aviator” – 8/1
Johnny Depp, “Finding Neverland” – 40/1

BEST ACTRESS
Hilary Swank, “Million Dollar Baby” – 6/5
Annette Bening, “Being Julia” – 8/5
Imelda Staunton, “Vera Drake” – 5/2
Kate Winslet, “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” – 30/1
Catalina Sandino Moreno, “Maria Full of Grace” – 40/1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Morgan Freeman, “Million Dollar Baby” – 7/5
Thomas Haden Church, “Sideways” – 8/5
Alan Alda, “The Aviator” – 5/1
Clive Owen, “Closer” – 6/1
Jamie Foxx, “Collateral” – 20/1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, “The Aviator” – 8/5
Virginia Madsen, “Sideways” – 5/2
Sophie Okonedo, “Hotel Rwanda” – 3/1
Natalie Portman, “Closer” – 7/2
Laura Linney, “Kinsey” – 30/1

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Sideways” – 8/5
“Million Dollar Baby” – 5/2
“Finding Neverland” – 3/1
“Before Sunset” – 5/1
“The Motorcycle Diaries” – 8/1

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” – 5/2
“The Incredibles” – 3/1
“The Aviator” – 7/2
“Hotel Rwanda” – 4/1
“Vera Drake” – 4/1

+++++

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