Grammy Predictions By American Music Journalists

オッズ。

さて、自分の予想を発表した後、いろいろ探していたら、おもしろいサイトに出会った。ゴールドダービーというサイトで、ここはいろいろなアワードをそれぞれの専門家が予想するというもの。グラミーも、その後に行われるアカデミーも、いろいろ予想している。さらに、それぞれの部門でのオッズをつけていた。

http://www.goldderby.com/articles/grammyodds2005.asp

ここで言うオッズとは、2/1は、2倍ということ。例えば、1000円買えば、2000円になるという意味。倍数が小さければ小さいほど、当選が有力とみなされている、ことになる。アルバムの4/5というのは、掛け金が元を割るということ。つまり、5000円かけても、4000円しか戻らない、ということ。それだけ大本命だという意味になる。

6/1は、6倍になる。8/5は1.6倍になる、ということです。下記リストは、上から順に有力ということを意味する。

また、このサイトは有力な音楽記者7人のそれぞれの予想を紹介している。

(例)
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
“Genius Loves Company,” Ray Charles & Various Artists — Arnold, Gundersen, Grein, Halperin, O’Neil, Willman
“American Idiot,” Green Day — Bauder

上記では、アーノルド、ガンダーセン、グレイン、ハルペリン、オニール、ウィルマンの6人がレイ・チャールズを予想、バウダーがグリーン・デイを予想ということになる。それにしても、いまや、あちこちでグラミー予想は花盛りか。(笑) きっとイギリスのブックメイカーなんかだと、実際にお金をかけてやってるんだろうなあ。

さて、あなたの予想はいかに。

GoldDerby Racetrack Odds:
Who’ll Win the Grammys

Odds are set by David Scott of America’s Line based upon the predix of our pro pundits. The odds are issued for entertainment purposes only and should NOT be used for gambling.

(オッズの順に並んでいます。一番上が勝者になる可能性が強いとオッズメイカーが考えたものです)

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

“Genius Loves Company,” Ray Charles & Various Artists – 4/5
“American Idiot,” Green Day – 2/1
“Confessions,” Usher – 6/1
“The Diary of Alicia Keys,” Alicia Keys – 8/1
“The College Dropout,” Kanye West – 50/1

RECORD OF THE YEAR

“Yeah!,” Usher – 3/2
“Here We Go Again,” Ray Charles & Norah Jones – 8/5
“American Idiot,” Green Day – 2/1
“Let’s Get It Started,” Black Eyed Peas – 40/1
“Heaven,” Los Lonely Boys – 50/1

SONG OF THE YEAR

“If I Ain’t Got You,” Alicia Keys – 2/1
“Live Like You Were Dying,” Tim Nichols, Craig Wiseman – 12/5
“Jesus Walks,” C. Smith, Kanye West – 5/2
“Daughters,” John Mayer – 3/1
“The Reason,” Daniel Estrin, Douglas Robb (Hoobastank) – 50/1

BEST NEW ARTIST

Maroon 5 – 9/5
Kanye West – 11/5
Gretchen Wilson – 3/1
Joss Stone – 7/2
Los Lonely Boys – 40/1

BEST FEMALE POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE

“Sunrise,” Norah Jones – 1/5
“The First Cut Is the Deepest,” Sheryl Crow – 8/1
“You Had Me,” Joss Stone – 10/1
“What You Waiting For?” Gwen Stefani – 12/1
“Oceania,” Bjork – 15/1

BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM

“Genius Loves Company,” Ray Charles and Various Artists – 2/5
“Feels Like Home,” Norah Jones – 4/1
“Brian Wilson Presents Smile,” Brian Wilson – 5/1
“Mind, Body and Soul,” Joss Stone – 15/1
“Afterglow,” Sarah McLachlan – 40/1

BEST SOLO ROCK VOCAL PERFORMANCE

“Code of Silence,” Bruce Springsteen – 1/2
“The Revolution Starts Now,” Steve Earle – 3/1
“Breathe,” Melissa Etheridge – 4/1
“Metropolitan Glide,” Tom Waits – 30/1
“Wonderwall,” Ryan Adams – 40/1

BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM

“Franz Ferdinand,” Franz Ferdinand – 4/5
“A Ghost Is Born,” Wilco – 5/2
“Good News for People Who Love Bad News,” Modest Mouse – 3/1
“Medulla,” Bjork – 30/1
“Uh Huh Her,” PJ Harvey – 35/1

BEST RAP SOLO PERFORMANCE

“99 Problems,” Jay-Z – 7/5
“Through the Wire,” Kanye West – 9/5
“Just Lose It,” Eminem – 2/1
“Overnight Celebrity,” Twista – 25/1
“On Fire,” Lloyd Banks – 35/1

BEST JAZZ VOCAL ALBUM

“Twentysomething,” Jamie Cullum – Even
“The Dana Owens Album,” Queen Latifah – 7/2
“R.S.V.P. (Rare Songs, Very Personal),” Nancy Wilson – 9/2
“Accentuate the Positive,” Al Jarreau – 6/1
“American Song,” Andy Bey – 8/1

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PREDIX PER PUNDIT (各予想者の部門別予想)

(予想した記者)
Chuck Arnold (People), Dave Bauder (Associated Press), Paul Grein (music writer), Edna Gundersen (USA Today), Shirley Halperin (Us Weekly), Tom O’Neil (In Touch Weekly), Chris Willman (Entertainment Weekly)

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

“Genius Loves Company,” Ray Charles & Various Artists — Arnold, Gundersen, Grein, Halperin, O’Neil, Willman
“American Idiot,” Green Day — Bauder

RECORD OF THE YEAR

“Yeah!,” Usher — Arnold, Bauder, Gundersen, Halperin
“Here We Go Again,” Ray Charles & Norah Jones — Grein, O’Neil
“American Idiot,” Green Day — Willman

SONG OF THE YEAR

“If I Ain’t Got You,” Alicia Keys — Arnold, Bauder, Gundersen, Halperin, O’Neil
“Live Like You Were Dying,” Tim Nichols, Craig Wiseman — Grein
“Jesus Walks,” C. Smith, Kanye West — Willman

BEST NEW ARTIST

Maroon 5 — Halperin, O’Neil, Willman
Kanye West — Arnold, Bauder, Gundersen
Gretchen Wilson — Grein

BEST FEMALE POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE

“Sunrise,” Norah Jones – Arnold, Bauder, Gundersen, Grein, Halperin, O’Neil, Willman

BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM

“Genius Loves Company,” Ray Charles and Various Artists – Arnold, Bauder, Gundersen, Grein, Halperin, O’Neil, Willman

BEST SOLO ROCK VOCAL PERFORMANCE

“Code of Silence,” Bruce Springsteen — Arnold, Gundersen, Grein, Halperin, O’Neil, Willman
“The Revolution Starts Now,” Steve Earle — Bauder

BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM

“Franz Ferdinand,” Franz Ferdinand — Gundersen, Grein, Halperin, O’Neil, Willman
“A Ghost Is Born,” Wilco — Bauder
“Good News for People Who Love Bad News,” Modest Mouse — Arnold

BEST RAP SOLO PERFORMANCE

“99 Problems,” Jay-Z — Arnold, Bauder, Grein, Gundersen, Halperin
“Through the Wire,” Kanye West — Willman
“Just Lose It,” Eminem — O’Neil

BEST JAZZ VOCAL ALBUM

“Twentysomething,” Jamie Cullum – Arnold, Bauder, Gundersen, Grein, Halperin, O’Neil, Willman

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ENT>MUSIC>AWARD>GRAMMY>47th

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